Russia's more corrupt than Nigeria.

Russian police uncovered 35,000 cases of corruption in the first nine months of this year, including alleged crimes by four deputy governors and five regional ministers.

Major bribe-taking increased by 17.5 percent from January to September compared with the same period of 2009, the Interior Ministry said in a statement distributed to reporters today. The average size of a bribe increased 1.5 times to around $1,400.

“We understand that you can’t overcome corruption in one year,” Alexander Nazarov, deputy head of the ministry’s economic crimes department, said at a briefing outside Moscow. “We are trying to minimize this problem so it doesn’t affect the development of the economy.”

Russia is the world’s most corrupt major economy, according to Berlin-based Transparency International’s 2010 Corruption Perceptions Index released yesterday, sliding to 154th among 178 countries and placing it alongside Tajikistan and Kenya.

While President Dmitry Medvedev vowed to combat corruption when he was elected in 2008, Russians surveyed at the end of July ranked the inability of Vladimir Putin, now the prime minister, to deal with the issue during his 10 years in power as the administration’s biggest failure.

Police said on Oct. 21 they were seeking the former deputy head of government in the Moscow region and his wife, believed to be in the U.S., over the alleged embezzlement of $1 billion. The authorities, who have detained the region’s former deputy finance chief in the same case, said they managed to recover $820 million of the misappropriated assets.

Russians pay bribes totaling $300 billion a year, equivalent to almost a quarter of gross domestic product, according to Kirill Kabanov, head of the National Anti- Corruption Committee. Medvedev’s promises to reduce corruption won’t succeed unless law enforcement is improved, he said in an interview yesterday.

Another Consensus Option Coming•As Northern Leaders Insist Jonathan Drops Presidential Bid

Another form of consensus option is set to emerge on the political scene, following the understanding reached by some leading political figures to adopt what is called a “national consensus candidate.”
The bid is said to be a response to moves by the Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF) led by Alhaji Adamu Ciroma to ensure the emergence of a single aspirant among the presidential hopefuls who are members of the Peoples democratic Party (PDP) from the North.
Investigations by the Saturday Tribune revealed that the top political figures had compiled what looked like a record of performance of each of the notable aspirants within the PDP and other major parties and have come to the realisation of the need to burst the persistent ethnicisation of the electoral process, ahead of the 2011 election.
A source, in the know about the deal, said that the leaders preferred to keep their names out of print for now and that the political figures are already working out a committee that would be similar to the 17-member Consensus Committee raised by the Ciroma team.
“Worried by the threat to Nigeria’s stability and the need to overhaul the political setting as far as the 2011 race is concerned, a team of elders is working on the emergence of a national consensus candidate, as opposed to the sectional consensus candidate being worked on by some northern leaders,” a source said.
Other sources with knowledge of the development said that the team of leaders had met more than twice on the idea and that they have already put together what could stand as an assessment of each of the leading aspirants.
One of the conditions, according to the source, is that the candidate that would be adopted for 2011 may be asked to stand for election for only one term, while a younger candidate would be groomed to lead the consolidation of Nigeria’s development from 2015.
It was gathered that the prognosis of this team is swinging the direction of President Goodluck Jonathan, who will be presented the final report of the team.

The team is said to be of the view that if Jonathan agreed to quit office in 2015, he should be supported to lay the foundation for Nigeria’s true development, while younger elements like Mallam Nuhu Ribadu and Mallam Nasiru el-Rufai would be groomed to take charge afterwards.

The group is already sending signals to Jonathan that if he will stay in office only between 2011 and 2015, he should be named a national consensus candidate who will set the tone for Nigeria’s socio-economic growth.
It was learnt that the aspirants, already analysed by the group; include former Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari; former military ruler, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida; former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; former National Security Adviser, General Aliyu Gusau; former anti-corruption chief, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu and the governor of Kwara State, Dr. Bukola Saraki.
It was gathered that the team had already discovered that besides the power of incumbency, Jonathan appeals to a group of Nigerians who want to do away with liabilities of the past.
On Jonathan’s Bid
The northern political leaders on the platform of Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF) are not about to give up fight on their demand for shift of presidential power to the northern region, and hence have started moves towards taking a court action on the issue.
The Forum led by Mallam Adamu Ciroma, Saturday Tribune can report, has started seeking legal advice on how to go by their resolve to seek judicial intervention on their demands, amid plans to drag the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to court
A top member of the Forum disclosed that once the elders got a peg of how to handle the litigation from suggestions by seasoned lawyers, including Senior Advoceates of Nigeria, they would not hesitate in proceeding to the court to challenge PDP on the issue of zoning.
The elders, it was learnt, are more interested in taking on the PDP on its constitution which they stressed recognised zoning, and the need to seek the court leave in compelling it to obey its constitution on the matter.
By implication, the North has now been leaving no stone unturned in ensuring that it gets back political power in 2011, following its conviction that any attempt by the PDP to make the incumbent president extend his government by 2011 meant that he would be doing so at the expense of the North.
More than three weeks ago, the NPLF, through Mallam Ciroma, had issued a week ultimatum through a press statement in which he called on PDP to prevail on President Goodluck Jonathan to withdraw from the 2011 presidential race, although Ciroma never specified any action his Forum would take at the expiration of the ultimatum
Already, some individuals had filed different applications in court on the issue of zoning, whereas the efforts being made by the northern leaders, according to some top shots, are meant to harmonise different views and positions on it and to approach the court as a formidable team.
The plan by the elders, as disclosed, is to mobilise most political juggernauts from the northern region to storm the court on the day the case would be presented to give an impression of seriousness on their preparedness to fight the issue of zoning to a logical conclusion.
The Forum on the other hand had initiated the process of picking a consensus representative among the four presidential aspirants who had collected nomination forms to run on the platform of PDP in 2011 presidential election.
Findings have, however, revealed that the elders who had commissioned a survey on the chances of each of the aspirants have been engaged in series of talks with each of them to accept any one of them who might have been selected by the 17 men saddled with the task of selecting the consensus candidate for the North.
As of the close of this week, the four aspirants, had restated their pledge to abide by any decision by the men on the issue of consensus candidacy for the North.

The Way Forward for Nigeria (II)
Pendulum By Dele momodu,Email:delemomodu@thisdayonline.com, 07.31.2010

When I wrote last week that President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan should not contest the next general elections in Nigeria, a few of his die-hard friends protested against my innocent suggestion. It is a pity that we never learn from other people’s misfortune in our country. This time last year, no one knew President Jonathan would ever be allowed to take the mantle of power by the cult of President Umaru Yar’Adua’s supporters. Those guys were known at the time as the “cabal”. A few months down the road that word has suddenly, albeit temporarily, disappeared from the lexicon. However a new “cabal” is attempting to sneak itself into Aso Rock. Rumours are afoot, tongues are wagging and we are hearing from usually authoritative sources that Nigerians would soon be shocked out of their wits to learn of a new woman who’s more powerful than her erstwhile Excellency, Hajia Turai Yar’Adua, our audacious former First Lady. And this modern day Cleopatra is not even the wife of the President. Abuja is already agog with salacious tales of She, who must be obeyed, a quintessential character out of Henry Rider Haggard’s novel She: A History of Adventure.


Let’s leave SHE for now. The import of my narrative is that we seem to always waltz from one tragic persona to another. Once upon a time, the only name on every lip was Turai. It seemed no other woman existed. Even Dr Goodluck Jonathan did not possess the temerity to assume power when it was so obvious that power was his for the grabs. Some of us had to take to the streets without any prompting from him to help liberate him from the jaws of the lions of Abuja. The situation was so grave that even many of us feared for his life. There were reports that he was advised at a stage not to go near his office or accept any meal that was not personally cooked by his wife, Dame Patience Jonathan, and his food was possibly sanctified by his pastors. But human memory is always very short. Nigerians have since moved on in our traditional habit of what Wole Soyinka called “collective amnesia”.


When God performs one miracle in the life of a man, the man often assumes that God has immediately retired, and no other man should benefit from God’s undeserved benevolence. He even believes that God deserves no compensation for being so merciful. What I expected of President Jonathan is to offer sacrifice to God as thanksgiving for elevating him from a man who was treated like nobody to somebody. The Bible is replete with tales of sacrifices. What Nigeria needs right now is a selfless leader who would put the nation above self. We are practically in a state of emergency, and it is obvious that Nigeria will haemorrhage to death if we allow the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) as presently constituted to return to power for another four years after the 2011 elections. It is certain that most of the politicians at the Federal level have since convinced themselves that democracy is not a government of the people, by the people and for the people. It is now a Government of MY people, by MY people, for My People! Indeed the selfishness displayed makes one to believe they have gone even further to turn democracy into a Government of ME, by ME, for ME.


The major plank of this thesis is that President Jonathan would have robbed Nigerians of the luxury of a free and fair contest once he participates in a race he’s expected to supervise. There is no where I suggested he was not qualified to run. It is his legitimate right and that of every Nigerian to aspire to any office of his choice. In a normal setting, I would not have suggested such a seemingly undemocratic idea. But ours is a “peculiar mess”, apologies to Adegoke Adelabu. Elections in Nigeria in the past 50 years have never produced the desired results because of the propensity of a few upstarts to force themselves on the rest of us. And in a situation where it is impossible for the people to freely elect the leaders who can represent their aspirations, we are playing with a bloody revolution.


But our leaders don’t seem to realise how close we are to the precipice. We are about to be thrown down the cliff as a nation. By the time we take this kamikaze plunge, the whole of Africa would be in a mess. What makes it so tragic is the fact that we are about to commit mass suicide because of the rabid ambition of those who have never demonstrated any sense of competence and achievement in their private and public lives. Most of those who parade themselves as very important personalities in our climes are accidents of creation. Without their unrestricted access to public funds, no one would have known of their existence.


The bigger tragedy is the fact that most Nigerians have since resigned themselves to fate. They have become despondent and seem not to have a clue as to how to exorcise the demons in our midst. What is worse is the fact that those who seek a change are always tearing at each other’s throat when they should conserve their energy for the battle ahead. They find it hard to even recognise the few good and genuine human beings amongst us. The way forward for Nigeria is for everyone who truly cares about our country to join hands with others to rescue this otherwise great nation from the evil grip of a few plantation slave owners. This would require personal sacrifice at the highest level. For President Jonathan to win the next election he would have to sign a pact with the devils that lurk around our corridors of power. He would have to compromise a lot of things because the many warlords and garrison commanders that flock his political party will never consider the interests of the majority of our people who are suffering in the midst of plenty. He is already distracted from his duties by the cacophony of electioneering campaigns. He would waste our resources on himself and his band of chorus singers.


It is not how long a man stays in office that defines his greatness. It is how well he touches the people. I have seen the hurried but slapdash jobs being done for President Jonathan by those who must make money at all costs. I have seen the unprofessional billboards springing up around the Federal Secretariat Abuja, and I’m very saddened by the fact that the desperados have returned with a vengeance. They are holding our President hostage by persuading him to contest, when really he has nothing more to prove. I’m reading statements from the man who never stops to amaze me, Chief Francis Arthur Nzeribe. We have suddenly been teleported back to the eventful year of 1993. It must be true that history repeats itself. But what man would not learn from the lessons of history? What man but someone on the fringe of lunacy would do the same things repeatedly and expect different results.


What is more baffling is the fact that the gladiators have assumed that the long-suffering people of the South-South have no say in who represents them. In what smirks of unbridled arrogance, these power speculators are assuming that everyman from South-South is a member of PDP. This fact was pointed out to me recently by a senior leader of the South-South. It becomes a matter of concern and it is clear that this type of delusional attitude should be discouraged. The PDP believes it owns Nigeria. It believes abysmal non-performance is no cause for worry. If I was convinced that PDP has the capacity to discipline itself and move Nigeria to greatness, like many Nigerians I know all over the world, I would not worry too much about the participation of President Jonathan in next year’s election. However, it is important to note that a victory for Jonathan, in the present climate, would translate to automatic victories for the incompetent and irresponsible politicians who have brought our otherwise great nation to the disgraceful state we are today. There is no where a student is applauded for failure. And that is what our recent leaders have been – inept, lazy students, not graduates much less professors - struggling to understand the craft of governance but without the resources or the skill that could even enable them achieve a pass mark.


As for me and my house all he has to do in the next few months is to work hard and ensure he leaves a legacy of enduring democracy. He does not need to do anything more. Every country is in a continuum and other leaders will emerge in a truly democratic setting. They will take our country to the Promised Land and provide the infrastructure and governance required for this.


The point is the President cannot achieve the enthroning of true democracy if he joins in the fray. I do not suggest for a minute that he is not eligible or qualified to contest. However, if he does, he will naturally be in it to win and his reckless and unruly party will do everything to ensure this. The President, in order to fulfil his ambition, and possibly continue his much vaunted goodluck, will have to turn a blind eye, at the very least, to the serious infractions that the PDP zealots will inflict on democracy and the rule of law.
The only course is for the President to be an unbiased, impartial umpire. This appears to be his God sent errand in Nigeria. It is my hope that the President will seek God’s face, heed his voice and fulfil this mission.

PETROLEUM MATTERS

Lagos — The Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), an amalgamation of over 16 existing laws covering the entire oil and gas sector in Nigeria, contains stringent guidelines that will protect the environment from oil spills and other forms of degradation, when passed into law by the National Assembly.
Minister of Petroleum, Mrs. Diezani Alison-Madueke stated this yesterday at a CNN programme monitored by THISDAY in Lagos.Speaking as a guest on CNN Business Quest anchored by Richard Quest, the minister refuted claims by environmental groups that there is more oil spills each year in the Niger Delta than in the Gulf of Mexico.
She however acknowledged that about nine million barrels of oil may have been spilled in the Niger Delta but pointed out that the spills dated back to 1938 when oil exploration and production started in the country.
Alison-Madueke, who attributed the spills to piracy and misapplication of the country's laws, assured that the country has put in place strict guidelines to address the situation.
"We have seen so many pirates. The militancy in the Niger Delta obviously created problems. There was piracy in terms of bunkering but there may have been some misapplication of laws over the years. This as we see now, has become a thing of the past because we are implementing extremely stringent laws, processes and procedures and to ensure that environmental degradation is addressed in time and is effectively remediated," she said.
The Minister assured that the PIB, which she said would be passed in the next four to five weeks, with the assistance of the members of the National Assembly will address not only the issue of environmental degradation but also ensure greater equity and participation of the Niger Delta communities in the oil and gas sector.
She noted that the inability of the country to refine enough petrol for domestic consumption was a huge problem, pointing out however that planned implementation of deregulation in the next 12 to 16 months would boost investment in new refineries and rehabilitation of the existing ones.

LAGOS TO GET NEW AIRPORT.

The Lekki Airport

When the only international airport in Lagos State; Murtala Muhammed International Airport (MMIA), was built, Ikeja was a suburb of Lagosand not the bustling commercial centre it is today. All the neighbourhoods and communities around the airport, like Oshodi, Isolo,Mafoluku have become heavily built up and highly populated. These lead to sporadic and disruptive traffic congestions. Despite the fact that the Lagos State government has made heroic efforts to make the Oshodi
access to the airport better by clearing the Kaiyero Market area,there is still traffic leading up to the airport itself, especially at peak hours in the morning and evening.

This scenario and several other factors like the number of passengers flying in and out of Lagos (5million per year) have made the need for another airport in Lagos State imperative, in anticipation of further economic growth in the state. The Lagos State Government established the Lagos Airport Development Company (LADC) solely for the purpose of managing the development of the proposed Lekki Airport with a primary
objective of complementing and supporting the Murtala Muhammed International Airport (MMIA).

Forward thinking as usual, the Governor through the state Ministry of Commerce and Industry is developing a masterplan for the new international airport to be built by the state in Lekki. The new airport is expected to cost $600million and will be built adjacent to the 16,500 hectare Lekki free trade zone to further catalyse the
ongoing development of the southeast region of the State.
The Lekki corridor is considered one of the most dynamic future growth areas in Nigeria. The new airport will provide much needed facilities for air passengers travelling to or via Lagos and also ease congestion at the MMIA.

The Lekki Airport is a complex project, which is why the state government engaged the best international consultants available to develop the Lekki Airport Master Plan. The study will be completed in four (4) separate stages and each stage requires approval from the Lagos State Government before proceeding to the next level.

The first stage comprises of the client’s brief; establishment of the project team; visit to the proposed site; air traffic analysis and critique for passengers and cargo; planning parameters and key facilities; yardstick measurements and airport schematics; development of airfield layout options and evaluation options and assessment.
During the second stage of the master plan, the team wrote about the passenger terminal sizing; concepts and assessment; preferred airfield and terminal options; architectural treatment options; conclusions and recommendations; development budget estimate; strategic programme options and procurement options.
For stage 3, the team will develop selected options; landside access –road & rail; prepare phasing strategy, amongst others.
The fourth and last stage will include the creation of a 3D model;presentation material; final master plan report and presentation to Governor Fashola and Lagos State Government team and the Master Plan study approval.

The Master Plan is currently at stage 3 is due to be completed by June this year. The Governor expects the airport to be operational by 2013.

EASIER SAID THAN DONE.

Goodluck Jonathan At the Nigerian Diaspora conference I had cause to say that we need to move away from dependence on crude oil otherwise we face a very dim future. On my part, I am not just raising an alarm. Together with my cabinet we are taking steps to actualise this necessary shift. As I informed you days ago, we have just set up ...an Inter Ministerial committee to revive Cocoa production and processing. It is our intention to do likewise with Rubber, Cotton, Ground Nut and Gum Arabic. I was inspired to have learnt from the writings of Mahathir Mohamad that the Palm Oil seedlings that Malaysia got from Nigeria in the early part of the last century were the seeds that gave birth to the Palm Oil plantations which made Malaysia the world’s largest producer of that product and which provided the seed money that made that nation an Asian Tiger. This is a lesson for Nigeria and we need to heed it while we have the time. It is also our intention to fund agricultural research agencies. I spent much of my life studying how to put the environment to good use as to sustain agriculture and as President I am committed to improving our agricultural capacity by consciously implementing research findings into our agricultural economy to the end that we must become a net exporter of food rather than an importer. Only then can we attain true economic independence and national food security. As an aside, it's been exactly a month since I created this page. Thanks for making it an enjoyable and informative experience. GEJ

Horrible.

Please forgive me,though,if I question if this horror is typical of Benin City in general not to talk of the whole of Edo state as indicated by the subject heading "A Typical Hospital Facility in Edo state".

For us to conclude that this is  typical of hospitals in Edo state,we need to do a study of hospitals  throughout the state,both public and private,because that is what is implied by the term "A ..Hospital Facility in Edo Sate".

It is important we dont fall into the fallacy of equating one example with a totality as people often do when criticizing Africa.

I realise that Dr.John Ogbeide,as chairman of the Edo State Hospitals Management Board,is in a position to make a summative statement about hospitals in the state.Did he make this judgment that these images are typical of Edo Sate hospitals or is that judgment being made by Solomon Uwadiale who posted these images?

I wonder if it is possible for Dr.John Ogbeide,as chairman of the Edo State Hospitals Management Board,to shed light on the causes of this problem he has highlighted in his presentation.Does it emerge from limitations of allocation to the hospitals management board? Is it from mismanagement of what is allocated? Have efforts been made to address this problems leading to this poor management or poor allocation a sthe case may be?

Edigin has summed up a crucial aspect of this problem in that the challenges here go beyond money being sent from the Diaspora,useful as that is.Such problems are often systemic and political,dealing with how power is managed in relation to the use of money.There is a need to investigate the channels of decision making through which such strategic resources  as the country and the states medical system is managed.

I wont pretend,however,to be able tio say much about how to go about this.

Sending money is more straightforward and easier but less directly targeted  at the problem.

THE MONSTER THAT WILL NEVER RETURN

WOLE SOYINKA BOOK REVIEW

The play, a Play of Giants, was written by Wole Soyinka to present a savage portrait of a group of dictatorial African leaders at bay in an embassy in New York City, United Nations. The play was purposely written to show the resemblance between the recent historical characters/African leaders and long or one time leaders in Africa who were known for their authoritarian or tyrannical rule and these include: Macias Nguema (late) of Equatorial Guinea, Jean Basptiste Bokassa of the Central African Republic, Mobutu Sese Koko of Congo Kinshasa and the Hero of heroes, the Field Marshal El-Haji Dr. Idi Amin of Uganda.
The play started with three of the dictatorial African leaders, Kamini, Kasco and Gunema who are planning to get a life-size group sculpture of the 'crowned heads' in their likeness. They have the intentions of making their statues part of other statues that would be placed at the UN stair passage. Their discussion on power and governance was interrupted by the presence of the Chairman of the Bugara Central Bank who brought the news of the refusal of the World Bank to grant Bugara country the demanded loan based on the ground of unsatisfied conditions to which the Bugaran President, Life President Dr. Kamini, responded that the Chairman should go back and agree to whatsoever conditions put forward by the World Bank even at the expense of the Bugaran people's body and soul.
However, the Chairman response to the President as touching the printing of the Bugaran currency by its Central Bank, saying that such printing would make no difference to 'toilet paper' made him to be severely punished by flushing the toilet on his head at the feet of the dictators.
The leaders further went on with their discussions when the Ambassador came in to inform them about his idea on where to place the leaders' statue. They all agreed to this and went on with their power discussion emphasizing on the importance of voodoo. This conversation was closely followed by the issue of the speech to be read, who to get it prepared, who to edit it and the importance of reading it to the hearing of the leaders present before the final or actual reading at the UN.
The sculptor was the next victim in the hand of Kamini who dealt badly with him through the hand of the Task Force Specials for saying that Kamini's statue does not worth being at the face of currency but rather sit in Madame Tussaud Chambers of Horrors.
The fourth leader joined the scene at the later end of part one, General Barra Tuboum of Nbangi - Guela, who Kamini called Alexander the Great. After short discussion on rebellion and war, the Honourable Mayor of Hyacombe and his party came in preceded by Professor Betey; his arrival changed the point of discussion to imperialist conspiracy, calling themselves names like Alexander, Napoleon and all sort. The Mayor came with golden keys.
The second part was opened with launch organized by Kamini for other African leaders with the Secretary-General introduced, who is a top civil servant, who missed the dreaded anger of Kamini when he said that the sculpture suppose to be statuettes, small in size and put on shelves like that of Beethoven, Shakespeare or Lenin and later distributed in copies. The sculptor was seen with bandages all over from head to toe, the handiwork of Kamini TF Specials.
Further conversation continued as two Russian and American delegates each arrived at little interval before Betey ran in alarming that coup has been staged in Bugara. Not long after, TF Specials were asked to position the weapon including missiles of Bugara to be used in destroying UN, fueled by the news that the Secretary-General has escaped and the believe that the delegates have hand in the coup. This was followed by the aggression of some people who ganged up outside the embassy, protesting (singing) that Kamini should leave (handover).

The play ended with shout from Kamini: Fire! Fire!! Fire!!!

PRESIDENCY RACE

An exciting election looms next year: no one knows who is going to run and, more importantly, who is going to win

President Goodluck Jonathan has a year to make good on his promises to tackle the electricity crisis, lead a credible anti-corruption campaign and implement the electoral and political reforms proposed by Justice Mohammed Uwais’s Commission (AC Vol 51 No 8). National elections are due by June 2011. By December 2010, it will be clear whether Jonathan’s government lives up to its promises. The combination of a sustained improvement in electricity supply and organising free and peaceful elections would give him something approaching heroic status. His associates say that he is serious about reform but complain that the government is undermined by vested interests and political deals.
The difficulty with pushing through reforms within six months is that the governing People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is due to hold its national congress in November to choose a presidential candidate. If Jonathan wants to run, he and his colleagues will be distracted by politics and the resulting deals could scupper serious reform. It is not clear how party rules on the candidacies will work. A careless official in his camp told journalists that Jonathan had every right to stand in next year’s presidential election and that he would vote for him. He later returned to insist he was speaking purely in a personal capacity.
PDP barons talk of a gentlemen’s agreement under which the party leadership, and so the presidential candidacy, alternate between north and south. Given that the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, from the north-west, served barely three-quarters of a term, the logic is that a candidate from the north should succeed him in 2011. Jonathan’s camp is quietly testing the waters.
As his Vice-President, Jonathan chose the little-known Mohammed Namadi Sambo, former Governor of Kaduna State. A day before the announcement, Sambo had led a group (including Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, the self-exiled ex-minister and Yar’Adua’s most vocal critic) to offer condolences at the President’s residence. El-Rufai has returned to help push the reform of the PDP. In Kaduna, the impact of Sambo’s promotion is unfolding. Patrick Yakowa, the new Governor, a Christian from southern Kaduna, has to choose a Muslim deputy. Several factions are competing and their squabbles may jeopardise security, Sambo’s most palpable achievement in the state.
The vice-presidency is a robust launch pad for a presidential bid and several ambitious politicians would like to see Sambo fail. Among them are Gombe Governor Danjuma Goje; Muktar Shagari, Deputy Governor of Sokoto State and son of ex-President Shehu Shagari; and Ahmed Makarfi, a senator and one-time Governor of Kaduna. In 2007, then President Olusegun Obasanjo backed Yar’Adua rather than Makarfi, who is seen by some as a closet Islamist and whose health is in doubt; he was flown abroad late last year for three months of treatment.
Given the squabbles within the PDP and the north, Mahmud Yayale Ahmed, Secretary of the Federal Government, would have been the safest choice as Vice-President. He is a true civil servant, unlikely to rock the boat – but not a card-carrying member of the party in power. National Security Advisor Aliyu Mohammed Gusau is preparing for a presidential bid in 2011. Michael Are, former Director General of the State Security Service under Obasanjo, is Gusau’s deputy. The presidential ambitions of Bukola Saraki, Chairman of the Governors’ Forum, are as strong as ever.
Yet the PDP has been changing, even in the three weeks since Yar’Adua’s death. Nigeria’s political commentariat believes that a clean-out of thieves and thugs is overdue. A deadlock among the northern candidates could position Jonathan as a trusted compromise candidate from the ‘South-South’. At a conference on Nigeria in Washington in late April, Obasanjo said, ‘There’s no arrangement that precludes any Nigerian from contesting or from becoming the President of Nigeria.’ In effect, he was supporting Jonathan’s right to run, calling for abrogation of the informal north-south pact and insisting that politicians of his generation must allow younger ones their chance.
Jigawa Governor Sule Lamido has ruled himself out as ‘too old’ and ‘too analog’. He insists, though, that the next president be from the north. Mu’azu Babaginda Aliyu, Niger Governor and Chair of the Northern Governors’ Forum, says the candidate can come from any part of Nigeria, as long as he’s not ‘riff-raff’.
    The influential northern socio-political Arewa Consultative Forum seeks a credible, competent northern candidate, while for now supporting the elderly respected technocrat, Bamanga Tukur, a member of the Presidential Advisory Committee. He could serve as a stopgap. The ten-year-old Forum might then throw its weight behind Kano Governor Ibrahim Shekarau, a 55-year-old civil servant-turned-politician, who has just been blessed by the Sultan of Sokoto as the Sardauna of Kano, a time-honoured but now honorary title.
Shekarau, a two-term Governor from the All Nigeria People’s Party in a supposed PDP stronghold, ensured that votes counted, a policy which gave him an unprecedented two terms in office. He espouses A Daidaita Sahu (‘attitudinal change’), a concept that denounces lawlessness, corruption, almajiri (begging), talla (girl-child hawkers), maula (parasitism) and daba (thugs) as signs of the breakdown of ‘the attitudinal infrastructure’.